USABO semifinalist, SUMaC, pre-med track - realistic about BS-MD vs traditional route?

Junior, 3.95 UW, 1550 SAT, took AP Bio / Chem / Calc BC already. USABO semifinalist last year, did SUMaC after sophomore summer, solid research pipeline through my mom's network at Genentech but nothing published yet. Debating whether to ED Brown PLME or play it safer with Stanford / Penn and pre-med track. Real question: am I delusional about BS-MD odds or should I actually gun for it. ngl the guarantee is tempting but I don't want to torpedo my app by being too narrow. Anyone here actually get into one of those programs or is it just lottery vibes.